Gambling and Probability Explained – Help Manage Loss

The Importance of Understanding Probability

Understanding the true mathematical nature of casino probability is crucial for grasping how to optimize your gameplay. Probability plays a central role in determining your chances of winning or losing in any game, which makes it a powerful tool for making informed decisions and enhancing your overall outcomes.

Whether you’re rolling dice, spinning a wheel, or playing cards, having a grasp of the odds provides a valuable edge. It’s always recommended to look for low house edge casino games to get the best chance of long term profits.

Don’t let the complexity of mathematics intimidate you; calculating basic probabilities in gambling doesn’t require advanced knowledge of maths or statistics.

A Word of Caution

These are usually casino superstitions or other forms of baseless beliefs, often disguised as ‘hunches’, which can mislead casino players into making irresponsible decisions.

One common casino superstition is believing in ‘hot streaks’ and ‘cold streaks’, which is the belief that if you’ve won or lost a series of rounds in a row, your luck is bound to change soon. This is also known as the gambler’s fallacy. Unfortunately, this can lead to reckless decisions such as placing higher stakes on the next outcome, under the misconception that some outcomes are more likely than others, merely based on the results of previous outcomes.

The only way to overcome this is to familiarize yourself with the meaning and methods of probability gambling to avoid falling victim to common gambler’s fallacies.

Common Gambler’s Fallacy

Consider a game of American roulette with 38 pockets. Essentially, the probability of each outcome is 1/38 and remains unchanged through every bet.

Since the outcome is completely random, the results of previous outcomes are not stored and in no way affect subsequent results. During every new spin, all outcomes are once more equally probable, irrespective of previous results.

Gambling and Probability

Probability is a measure of how likely a particular outcome is to occur when compared to all possible outcomes of the event. It is usually expressed as a fraction of 1, where an event with a probability of 0 is impossible, and a probability of 1 means that the outcome is certain. These fractional odds can also be represented as a decimal, percentage, or ratio.

Calculating Probability

Calculating the probability of an outcome usually involves counting the number of ways that the outcome can happen and dividing by the total number of different outcomes that the event can have.

For example, the probability of getting an even number when rolling a die is calculated by dividing the number of even outcomes on a die, which is 3 (counting 2,4,6), by the total number of outcomes, 6. In this case, the probability of getting an even number is 3/6 or ½.

The rule here is that when different outcomes are related by an ‘or’, their individual probabilities are added. The probability of each individual result on the dice is 1/6, but since an even outcome can be given by a 2, 4 or 6, then the probability of an even outcome is 1/6+1/6+1/6=1/2.

Using this simple arithmetic, you can calculate the probability of most outcomes in casino games.

The probability can be visualized in multiple ways, such as:

What Are Good Odds?

If, for example, bets are expressed using the Las Vegas pricing convention, the odds of a 1/3 event can be expressed as a ratio of 2:1, which represents the ratio of losses:wins, would come to +200. Although it may appear counterintuitive, positive odds are unfavourable.

Negative odds, say for example -150, are used to indicate the favourite, which means that they tend to represent a better chance of winning than positive odds. However, it is also worth noting that betting on the favourite often has the drawback that the payout will be smaller.

The Inbuilt House Edge

The house edge represents the percentage of each bet expected to become casino winnings over the long term. The simplest method for determining this figure is to assume someone bets €100 each time, calculate their average long-term losses, and divide this by the number of bets. Though random outcomes are common in the short term, over tens of thousands of results, actual outcomes tend to align with expected ones.

The casino relies on the law of large numbers as the foundation of its business model. Although players may experience short-term lucky streaks, these are outweighed by the anticipated results across all bets made in the casino.

Identifying and reducing the house edge stands out as one of the most effective strategies for enhancing one’s prospects in gambling.

The House Edge in Roulette

Let’s revisit the example of American roulette online for clarity. Imagine placing 38 bets on a single number out of all the 38 pockets at the American roulette table. The chances of it landing on your chosen pocket is 1 out of 38, or 37:1.

In an ideal mathematical scenario, you win once and lose 37 times. Since this bet pays out at 35 to 1, you stand to win €3500, but the 37 losing spins will cost you €3700, resulting in a net loss of €200. Dividing €200 by 38 gives the average loss per spin to be €5.26, and a house edge of 5.26%.

This means that, over an extended period, the casino will accumulate significant profits from this wager since every bet on the roulette wheel offers a payout that doesn’t align proportionally with the odds of winning.

In this case, you can simply half the house edge by selecting European roulette, which has only 37 pockets due to only having one 0-pocket. The house edge is, therefore, 2.70%, which makes it by far the most favourable choice.

Casino Games Probability of Winning

Keeping in mind the fundamental relationship between gambling and probability, there are certain games that have more favourable odds than others, and sometimes, the probability of winning can be improved further by using a strategy.

Mastering casino games probability is your key to playing with confidence and composure at the casino, whether it’s through strategic gameplay, astute betting tactics, or disciplined bankroll management.

Games With Good Odds

Although all games at the casino have an inbuilt house edge, games which depend more strongly on strategy and skills, rather than pure randomness, give players a better chance of winning.

The best example of this is blackjack, which offers some of the best odds in the casino. With the right playing strategy, the house edge can be as low as 1%. By following basic blackjack strategies based on probability, you can increase your chances of winning and minimize losses.

Games With Bad Odds

On the other hand, some games have very unfavourable odds and give players very slim chances of winning, heavily based on luck rather than skill. Though these games are often shiny and fun, they will exhaust your budget very quickly.

One key example is slot machines, which are known for their poor odds. Some slots have high volatility and a significant house edge, so it’s a good idea to choose the best RTP slot machines for the best chance of long-term success.

Good And Bad Betting Strategies

It is important to note that there is an important distinction between a betting system and a gambling strategy.

A betting strategy is mainly a system for bankroll management and involves adjusting the size of your bets according to previous outcomes. These systems are often unsuccessful because they hinge on gambler’s fallacy.

Some go as far as creating betting systems that assume these previous results will affect future results. A classic example of this is the Martingale system. Though it could be a thrill to play, it is not a very wise system to follow.

FAQs

Kate WebbEditor in Chief

With over ten years of experience working with gambling and writing about casinos, Kate brings a lot of knowledge to CasinoTop3.com. Kate oversees all the content written on CasinoTop3.com to ensure it contains factual information with value to you as a player.